1
Formulation of background error covariance matrix in data assimilation and its impact on prediction of very heavy rainfall over Indian region during South West monsoon season
Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 138, 21 (2026)
About & Research Philosophy
Sarvesh Kumar Dubey is an Associate Professor at the Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi (from June 2026). He joined CAS as an Assistant Professor in June 2019. His research primarily focuses on advancing atmospheric modeling through numerical and data-driven frameworks, with particular emphasis on understanding multi-scale interactions in the tropical atmosphere.
His work integrates theoretical modeling, numerical experimentation, and observational analysis to explore the energy budget and nonlinear scale interactions across phenomena such as intraseasonal oscillations (MJO/BSISO), the Indian summer monsoon, ENSO, synoptic systems, and organized convection.
During his doctoral and postdoctoral research, he contributed to the development of advanced global modeling frameworks aimed at improving the representation of atmospheric dynamics in Earth System Models. At IIT Delhi, his research group continues to bridge large-scale modeling and data-driven diagnostics to address fundamental questions in tropical meteorology and climate variability.
tropX Research Group Tropical Extremes & Dynamics
Dedicated to cutting-edge research in tropical weather dynamics, multi-scale scale energetics, high-resolution numerical weather prediction, and AI-driven meteorological applications. Explore our ongoing projects, student publications, dataset portals, and team members.
Bio-Sketch & Academic Background
Areas of Interest
Atmospheric Model Development
Formulation of dynamical cores, geodesic grids (icosahedral-hexagonal), and transport schemes.
Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)
High-resolution forecasting, model physics error analysis, and ensemble prediction systems.
Observational Analysis
Empirical diagnostic frameworks, climate variability, and multi-sensor data assimilation.
Tropical Meteorology
Monsoon dynamics, MJO, ENSO, tropical cyclones, convection, and scale energetics.
Positions Held
June 2026 – Present
Associate Professor
Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, India
June 2019 – June 2026
Assistant Professor
Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, India
Aug 2018 – June 2019
DST INSPIRE Faculty
Earth and Climate Science Department, IISER Pune, Pune, India
April 2014 – July 2018
Post Doctoral Fellow
EOAS, Florida State University (FSU), Tallahassee, Florida, USA
Nov 2013 – Jan 2014
Research Associate
Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, IIT Delhi, India
Aug 2010 – Oct 2013
Senior Research Fellow (SRF)
Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, IIT Delhi, India
Jan 2008 – July 2010
Junior Research Fellow (JRF)
Department of Mathematics, IIT Delhi, India
Qualifications & Education
2014
Doctor of Philosophy (Ph.D.)
Mathematics, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi (IIT Delhi), New Delhi, India
2006
Master of Science (M.Sc.)
Mathematics, Deen Dayal Upadhyaya Gorakhpur University, Gorakhpur, Uttar Pradesh, India
2004
Bachelor of Science (B.Sc.)
Mathematics and Physics, Deen Dayal Upadhyaya Gorakhpur University, Gorakhpur, Uttar Pradesh, India
Research Themes & Contributions
Geodesic Grids & Dynamical Cores
Formulation and evaluation of advanced conservative multi-tracer transport schemes (such as FF-CSLAM) and hydrostatic/non-hydrostatic dynamical cores (DYNAMICO, MPAS) on icosahedral-hexagonal meshes, avoiding pole singularities and conserving global properties.
Nonlinear Scale Energetics
Pioneering spectral kinetic and available potential energy exchange diagnostics between the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), equatorial waves (MRG), synoptic disturbances, and monsoon low-pressure systems across spatial and temporal hierarchies.
Tropical Cyclones & Rapid Intensification
Energetics of vortex-scale and sub-vortex-scale asymmetries in cyclogenesis. Investigating environmental drivers, moisture fluxes, and rapid intensity changes of cyclones over the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea.
Machine Learning & Data Assimilation
Developing ML-driven super ensembles for operational weather prediction (NCMRWF), hybrid background error covariance matrix formulations, and deep learning for lightning-assisted thunderstorm intensity prediction.
Publications & Presentations (22)
2
Understanding rapid intensification of tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal through energetics perspective
J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 130, e2025JD044489 (2025)
3
Mesoscale convective systems over South Asia: Unraveling climatology, land-ocean differences and environmental drivers
Clim. Dyn., 63, 419 (2025)
4
Characteristics of spectral energetics during contrasting rainfall years in Central India
Theor. Appl. Climatol., 156, 48 (2025)
5
Characterizing the South Asian summer monsoon in the Model for Prediction Across Scales through quasi-uniform and variable resolution
Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 137, 40 (2025)
6
Optimization of hybrid data assimilation for cases of very heavy rainfall events over the Indian region
Bulletin of Atmospheric Science and Technology, 5 (2024)
7
Characterizing the Energetics of Vortex-Scale and Sub-Vortex-Scale Asymmetries during Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensity Changes
J. Atmos. Sci., vol. 77, pp. 315–336 (2020)
8
Understanding the interannual variations of the zonal mean Indian summer monsoon seasonal rainfall
Clim. Dyn., vol. 53, pp. 5547–5559 (2019)
9
On Scale Interactions between the MJO and Synoptic Scale
Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., vol. 144, pp. 2727–2747 (2018)
10
Extreme Orographic Rains from Streams of Moist Marine Layer Wind Systems with a Possible Geoengineering Application
Int. J. Hydro, vol. 7, pp. 1–15 (2017)
11
Scale interaction during an extreme rain event over southeast India
Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., vol. 143, pp. 1442–1458 (2017)
12
DYNAMICO-1.0, an icosahedral hydrostatic dynamical core designed for consistency and versatility
Geosci. Model Dev., vol. 8, pp. 3131–3150 (2015)
13
On the inter-comparison of two tracer transport schemes on icosahedral grids
Appl. Math. Model., vol. 39, pp. 4828–4847 (2015)
14
A standard test case suite for two-dimensional linear transport on the sphere: Results from a collection of state-of-the-art schemes
Geosci. Model Dev., vol. 7, pp. 105–145 (2014)
15
A flux-form conservative semi-Lagrangian multitracer transport scheme (FF-CSLAM) for icosahedral-hexagonal grids
J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., vol. 6, pp. 332–356 (2014)
16
Investigation of the Rapid Intensity Changes of Landfalling Hurricanes Harvey and Irma (2017) through the Formalism of Scale Interactions
33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Ponte Vedra, Florida, USA (2018)
17
On the Maintenance of Large Anomaly Fields during a Record-Breaking Monsoon Drought via Scale Interactions
33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Ponte Vedra, Florida, USA (2018)
18
Hamiltonian approaches to spatial and temporal discretization of fully compressible equations
EGU General Assembly, Vienna, Austria (2017)
19
On the Nonlinear Kinetic Energy Transfer Between MJO and Synoptic Scales
Fourth Symposium on Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Processes, Prediction and Impact, New Orleans, USA (2016)
20
Using multipliers that statistically tag errors arising from individual terms of model Physics and dynamics in a forecast model for reduction of systematic errors
95th Annual Meeting, American Meteorological Society (AMS), Phoenix, Arizona, USA (2015)
21
Slope-Limited transport schemes using icosahedral hexagonal grid
Solution of Partial Differential Equations on the Sphere (PDEs on the sphere), Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences, Cambridge, U.K. (2012)
22
Positive advection schemes for icosahedral-hexagonal grids
NCAR Workshop on Transport Schemes on the Sphere, Boulder, Colorado, USA (2011)
Sponsored Research Projects
Ongoing / Sanctioned Projects
• Newly Sanctioned
PRITHVI: Physics-informed Regional Foundational High-resolution Model Development for Indian Sectoral Applications
- Role: Lead Principal Investigator (PI)
- Funding Agency: Anusandhan National Research Foundation (ANRF) – AI for Science & Engineering (AISE)
- Status: Selected for funding; yet to commence
• Ongoing / Sanctioned
Understanding the energetics of Tropical Cyclones in the Bay of Bengal to predict rapid intensity changes and provide future projections in the warming climate scenario
- Role: Principal Investigator (PI)
- Funding Agency: Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES)
- Status: Active
• Ongoing / Sanctioned
Developing an ML-driven Super Ensemble for NCMRWF's Ensemble Prediction System
- Role: Principal Investigator (PI)
- Funding Agency: Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES)
- Status: Active
Completed Projects
Completed
Geophysical Flow Simulations with Geodesic Hexagonal Meshes
- PI: Dr. Sarvesh Kumar Dubey
- Funding Agency: DST (Govt. of India)
- Budget: Rs. 35.0 Lakhs
- Duration: 2018 – 2023
Completed
Low Pressure Systems (LPSs) and their nonlinear interaction with other scales in atmosphere through the lens of Scale Energetics
- PI: Dr. Sarvesh Kumar Dubey
- Funding Agency: ISRO through IITD-STC
- Budget: Rs. 18.70 Lakhs
- Duration: 2021 – 2023
Completed
Extension of spectral scale energetics to study nonlinear scale interactions in nonhydrostatic regime
- PI: Dr. Sarvesh Kumar Dubey
- Funding Agency: SERB (Govt. of India)
- Budget: Rs. 15.0 Lakhs
- Duration: 2020 – 2022
Completed
Application of Numerical Weather Prediction Models to Identify Probable Sites Suitable for Accumulation of Locust Swarms and Determine their Flying Path
- Funding Scheme: FIRP Scheme
- Sponsor: IRD, IIT Delhi
Completed
Climate model development with an emphasis on tropics using superparametrization, scale energetics and dynamical core "DYNAMICO"
- Funding Scheme: Faculty Seed Grant
- Sponsor: IRD, IIT Delhi
Completed
Equipment Matching Grant from IITD IRD to Main Project No. MI02058
- Funding Agency: IRD, IIT Delhi
- Status: Successfully Completed
Research Group & Mentorship
Ph.D. Scholars
DP
Dhishana P. R.
Joined July 2020
Spectral energetics, Indian summer monsoon, climate variability
MK
Murali Krishna
Joined January 2021 • Ph.D. awarded 2026
Joint supervision with Dr. Somnath Baidya Roy (CAS) & Dr. John P. George (NCMRWF)
DP
Debjit Paul
Joined July 2021
MPAS modeling, mesoscale convective systems over South Asia
AJ
Alice Jeeva P J
Joined January 2023
Joint supervision with Prof. Sandeep Sukumaran
DP
Debanjan Paul
Joined 2024
Joint supervision with Prof. Ravi K. Kunchala
DS
Digvijay Kumar Singh
Joined 2025
Joint supervision with Prof. Ravi K. Kunchala
AD
Avijnan Das
Joined 2025
Atmospheric dynamics & numerical weather modeling
PK
Pramod Kumar
Joined 2025
Scale energetics & tropical weather phenomena
M.Tech/MS-R
SD
Sojol Das
Batch 2025–2027 (currently enrolled)
Thesis: To be finalised
H
Hina
Joined 2024 (Part-time)
Thesis: To be finalised
Interests: Forecasting, Extreme Rainfall Events, Synoptic Meteorology, Modelling, AI/ML, Agrometeorology
Interests: Forecasting, Extreme Rainfall Events, Synoptic Meteorology, Modelling, AI/ML, Agrometeorology
MK
Mohit Kumar
Batch 2024–2026
Thesis: Physics-Informed Neural Networks for Passive Tracer Transport on the Sphere
MB
Manas Behera
Batch 2023–2025
Thesis: Extending the hydrostatic dynamical core to Non-hydrostatic regime using machine learning
AC
Alakh Niranjan Chaturvedi
Batch 2023–2024
Thesis: Evaluating the Dynamical Core of DYNAMICO model
GS
Gokul Suresh
Batch 2023–2024 (IISER Tirupati)
Thesis: Comparative Study of Energy Budget Analysis Between Rapidly Intensified and non Rapidly Intensified Tropical Cyclones over Bay of Bengal Region
SS
Shabeena Shahnawaz
Batch 2022–2023
Thesis: Forecasting Intensity of Thunderstorm using Lightning Detection System Data with AI/ML Techniques
BK
Bharath Krishnan U
Batch 2022–2023 (IISER Pune)
Thesis: Investigation of in-scale and mean flow interactions of MRG waves using spectral energetics framework
AS
Abhinav Sharma
Batch 2020–2021
Thesis: An investigation of the multi-scale interactions in the Indian summer monsoon
Teaching & Postgraduate Courses
Academic Year 2023 – 2024
ASL732
Mathematical and Computational Methods for Atmosphere and Oceanic Sciences
ASP820
Advanced Data Analysis for Weather and Climate
Academic Year 2022 – 2023
ASP820
Advanced Data Analysis for Weather and Climate
ASL761
Earth System Modeling
Academic Year 2021 – 2022
ASP820
Advanced Data Analysis for Weather and Climate
ASL761
Earth System Modeling
Academic Year 2020 – 2021
ASP820
Advanced Data Analysis for Weather and Climate
ASL761
Earth System Modeling
Academic Year 2019 – 2020
ASL761
Earth System Modeling
Contact & Location Details
Office Address
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Faculty
Dr. Sarvesh Kumar Dubey
Associate Professor -
Department
Centre for Atmospheric Sciences (CAS)
Indian Institute of Technology Delhi
Hauz Khas, New Delhi – 110016, India
Communication Channels
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Email Address
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Telephone
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Research Group Portal